The answer to this question really depends on how success is defined and whether one is willing to accept the reality of the circumstances under which Trump is currently governing.
My metric for success is to compare where we are versus where we would be if Hillary Clinton were elected. By that standard, there’s plenty to celebrate despite some missteps and setbacks.
Trump, more than any other President inaugurated in the lifetime of anyone alive today, entered office at time when the country is bitterly divided. We hear about political polarization a lot, but what does that really mean? There’s always been political disagreement over policy, but the stakes on macro issues that will decide the republic’s longterm trajectory have never been higher. During the 2016 campaign, the balance of the Supreme Court was at stake. So was immigration policy and the many aspects of the American culture and national identity. These circumstances help to explain the unprecedented tantrum we’ve been seeing form the left.
Those who harp on the notion that President Trump is not sufficiently conservative make legitimate points, but should consider the bigger picture. I am a small government guy more than anyone and would love to see Obamacare fully repealed and whole Federal agencies dismantled. I hate that I am being forced to pay into entitlement programs that will collapse before I retire. I supported Ted Cruz in the primary. The sad reality is that lot of what people like me long for in terms of legislation is not politically feasible at this time. I am also resigned to the fact that an eventual debt crisis is likely unavoidable. That doesn’t mean that conservatives should give up those fights. Weak and corrupt Republicans should get primary challenges. Conservative/Constitutional principles should be pushed, taught and never abandoned. That being said, Trump has so far proven qualified to effectively tackle issues of greater immediate importance.
A Hillary Clinton victory would have established a liberal majority on the Supreme Court and might have afforded her the opportunity to expand it before leaving office. If you believe in the Constitution and rule of law, I don’t think you can overstate the gravity of what was at stake. President Trump kept his campaign promise to nominate an originalist. One can argue that he didn’t do this out of conviction, but rather to leverage conservative support. That could be the case, but so what?
A Hillary win would have meant tens if not hundreds of thousands more North African and Middle Eastern refugees gaining asylum in the U.S. each year as well as a continuation or acceleration of the status quo with respect to other immigration. Trump has made it clear that he views the migrant situation in Europe as a warning to the United States. He has also talked about reforming our legal immigration system in order to move toward a model that is more beneficial to the nation and its interests as opposed to the interests of the immigrants themselves. Finally, he has thus far demonstrated that his administration is serious about enforcing existing immigration law and securing the border in order to discourage future illegal entry and remove dangerous criminals already here. Immigration is a critical issue not only on the basis of security, but on the basis of demographics as well. Assimilation has its limits and poor immigrants have and will continue to vote overwhelmingly for the party offering the most government benefits even if they are culturally conservative.
Finally, President Trump is having an important cultural effect whether intended or not. Here are a few examples. First, his economic message is important. Despite having some policy proposals that I’m highly skeptical of, the symbolic importance of what he’s pushing should not be understated. The democrats’ economic message under Obama was all about grievance, dependence, envy and redistribution. By all indications, it wouldn’t have changed under Hillary. Trump’s message speaks positively about opportunity, hard work and achievement. We have yet to see how successful Trump’s economic policies will be, but his freezing and rolling back of excessive regulation is an underreported achievement that is very encouraging. Prolonged economic stagnation and excessive dependence on government pose a real danger to the preservation of traditional values such as hard work, individualism and free enterprise.
Second, Trump’s election has caused the left to routinely overplay their hand and show their true nature of ideological intolerance, which in many cases has spilled over into violence. There is real evidence that this damaging the democrat party. A recent Washington Post poll shows that Trump would win the popular vote in a do-over election despite the overwhelmingly hostile coverage he has received since November 8th.
Third, Trump’s campaign and subsequent victory reshuffled the deck. This is necessary and healthy every few decades n order to get get the country reengaged in politics and to wake up a political establishment that is becoming too comfortable. Another Republican probably could have beaten Hillary Clinton, but it wouldn’t have had the same effect. His campaign exposed the fact that the democrat party had abandoned the middle class in favor of identity politics. It also exposed the extent of media corruption and made apparent the necessity for new media.
There are things to be concerned about such as the failed bid to replace Obamacare with a Republican-branded Federal boondoggle. There are also real questions about whether a renewed repeal effort and effective tax reform can be achieved in the current political environment. The task of unifying republicans on big issues could continue to prove incredibly difficult given the large divide between the establishment and the insurgent wings of the party. Trump’s deal-making ability will be tested.
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